Markets 5.29.2026
SP 500
SP 500
SP 500
The SPX weekly chart was Up
1.43% last week.
The options markets are in favor of Puts this next Monday. Puts are slightly favored next Friday. Calls are then favored the next Friday.
Take all signals a grain of salt with the IRAN issue/news moving oil and markets for now.
The charts are High and weekly charts are capable of moving higher, or dropping/pause from these high areas.
5 year seasonal trends have the SPX up 75% of the time in June, then 100% of the time in July, before August, September, and October bring a 50% chance of higher prices or drops.
Proceed with caution, day traders paradise.
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QQQ
SP 500
SP 500
The QQQ was Up 2.89% last week.
Options-
Monday- Calls are slightly in favor.
.
Next two Fridays- Calls slightly in favor.
.
Seasonal trends for the past 5 years show QQQ UP 75% of the time in June and July, then 50% of the time in August, September and October.
Charts are high, AI hype is driving Tech/semis and the markets higher. Charts are looking like a Top in place ready to drop off, BUT THEY KEEP GOING HIGHER.
AI semi hype keeps moving the markets, tech higher. Several pauses are more frequent and deeper before moves back higher. Buy the dip seems to be the best trade for now, until the AI hype breaks, and these nose bleed levels come back to normal.
Fundamentals can justify these gains, as P/E ratios are not crazy like the .com boom. These are uncharted times in world history as technology and AI are accelerating and creating new and exciting things.
The TI-30 calculator was AI when I was in high school to my dad, now cell phones, internet, search engines, are all AI to my generation, always a 'new AI' compared to older AI.
I call this DAY TRADERS PARADISE, and that statement continues.
Semis
SP 500
Consumer Discretionary
The SOX was Up 5.14% last week.
The options markets are slightly in favor of Calls the next two weeks.
Semis are high, maybe at a Top and pause looks to be coming. 'who knows when'
5 year seasonal trends show SEMIs higher 75% of the time in June and July, only 25% in August. May has been the best month, up 100% of the time for the past 5 years.
I call this DAY TRADERS PARADISE, and that statement continues.
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
XLY was Up 1.42% last week.
Charts are mixed, with XLY weaker than other charts. The 'risk on' area is not giving any clear directions.
Seasonality has XLY up 75% in June, and 100% in July, then only 25% in August.
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Energy
Consumer Discretionary
Junk Bonds
The XLE was Down 5.38% last week.
Options prices are slightly in favor of calls.
Oil prices are driving the markets The war in Iran will determine things for the world economy.
Junk Bonds
Consumer Discretionary
Junk Bonds
HYG Junk, high yield bonds, indicating Risk 'on' or 'off'.
HYG was Up .50 last week.
Seasonal trends are up 75% in June, 100% July, 75% August, 50% September, then only 25% in October.
The news and IRAN will move the markets until the war is 100% over.
20 Year Treasury Bond
20 Year Treasury Bond
20 Year Treasury Bond
The TLT goes UP when interest rates are going lower, and the SPX generally goes UP with the TLT these days.
TLT was Up 1.28% this week.
Puts are in favor the next two Fridays.
Seasonal trends are
June up 75%
July, August, September- up 50%
October 25%
November 100%
December 25%
Volatility Index
20 Year Treasury Bond
20 Year Treasury Bond
$VIX- increases in Volatility lead to lower stock prices.
VIX was Down 8.26% last week.
Calls are in favor the next two weeks, predicting higher volatility and lower stock prices.
Oil and Iran issue will dictate volatility. Good news will pop up the markets,
$VIX has had a low range of around 12 this decade, that is a point of pause/drops or corrections in the markets. Previous lows in VIX were 8 -11 area, so we can continue lower in the VIX before any volatility starts up.
Seasonal trends show VIX up 25% in June
50% in July
25% in August
100% in September
75% in October
So we might expect the markets to continue higher until traditional corrections hit in September and October. 'who knows for sure, anything can happen, so anything will happen/break history'
Gold
20 Year Treasury Bond
Silver
Gold was Up .80% last week.
Options prices are in favor of Calls the next two Fridays.
Signals are mixed, looking more likely to go higher.
Seasonal trends show -
June Up 25%
July 50%
August 50%
September 50%
Silver
Bitcoin
Silver
Silver was Down .04% last week.
Options are slightly in favor of Calls the next two weeks.
Seasonal 5 year trends are Silver UP
June 25% of the time
July 75%
August 25%
September 75%
October 100%
Copper
Bitcoin
Bitcoin
Copper was Up .34% last week.
Dr. Copper, a signal for basic industrial growth.
Seasonal trends are UP-
June 50%
July 25%
August 25%
September 50%
October 25%
November 75%
December 75%
Bitcoin
Bitcoin
Bitcoin
Bitcoin was Down 3.10% last week.
Options are slightly in favor of Puts this week, then Calls the next week.
3 years of seasonal trends show
UP
June 50%
July 100%
August 0%
September 100%
October 50%
The War/Iran/Oil issues continue to keep uncertainty alive.
Mixed Signals here for everything.